This has been talk in the press about a split up of Iraq amongst ethnic lines as a possible outcome since before the invasion. Now the discussion goes towards the fact that the risk that needs mitigation is of a Shia breakaway attempting to become part of Iran. The Administration’s primary plan has always been to rule Iraq’s oilfields as a unitary puppet-state; three states just makes matters more complicated and easier to lose control of. In addition, the Shia faction has always been most likely to become a client of Iran if left to its own devices; yoking it to the Sunnis and the Kurds helps to prevent this. Remember that Khomeini spent most of his exile from the Shah in the holy city of Qum in Iraq; there is a long-standing relationship between the areas going back to Roman times, when the Euphrates marked the boundary between Rome and Sassanid Persia. However, the Shias own the all-important port at Basra. Without Basra, oil cannot be easily exported to the West; pipelines and roads north most efficiently serve the Russians, not Americans or “international” oil companies. Therefore, the Americans must control Basra and either one of the two main oil regions, southern or northern/Kurdish. Unfortunately, the Shia hold Basra and the south, and the Americans’ best allies (although one questions their common sense) are the Kurds in the north. Ultimately, they are all going to realize that their best interests are served by selling their own oil to the SCO, either directly to Russia by the Kurds, or indirectly by allowing Iran to act as their agent in the case of the Shia.
Whether America catches on or not, the Shanghai Cooperative Organization has essentially re-established the Cold War geostrategic balance with two major differences: Iran is now firmly in the other camp; and we have reached the slow downside of the Peak Oil phenomenon — and most importantly, the sharp downside of U.S. and British internal supplies. Alaska, Texas, and the North Sea are all in declining production, and the major new Gulf find is actually quite small and extremely difficult to get to by historical standards, as well as smack-dab in the middle of hurricane territory. I am becoming convinced that World War III has indeed begun — an extended network of strategic alliances based on intent to dispute possession of key territories at all costs. And Americans fondly rely on their past history of expansion to believe that they can’t be defeated … a foolish idea, since no empire is eternal, and they all believe they’re unbeatable until they get dusted.
Allowing the breakdown is now discussed regularly as the only “realistic” solution politically, however, it won’t give the Bushies what they want — a captive oil-producing territory. That’s probably why they’re starting to threaten to move on Iran as well. Of course, if they do, they will destroy *our* country pretty much as thoroughly as they will Iran. But hey, the economy is going to head for its permanent slide beginning next year, anyway. There’s no coming out of this tailspin; the point of no return is past. The Iraq war will finish us whether or not we commit lunacy in Iran.
P.S.: Don’t worry too hard. “If the end of the world is nigh, it is time to be in Cincinnati. Everything comes to Cincinnati twenty years late.” - Mark Twain
- Posted by Cynndara Morgan for USTV Media